You will excuse me, I hope, of living a life of liberal
bias. It’s a free country. Or so they
say. I am a liberal though I prefer to
say ‘progressive’ because I am more attentive to how what is happening now
informs the future rather than being overly concerned with the past. As they say, it’s just a goodbye.
I am not a complete idiot so I would like to talk about my
liberalism. I came by it honestly. I went to a Quaker school while Vietnam was a
hot war and I was attentive to my duty but concerned that the fighting was
wrong. I thought to protest was the
patriotic thing. Now who was I to
dispute the grand marshals of American exceptionalism; Rostow, McNamara, and Bundy? Weren’t they Kennedy’s “brain trust”? I
thought America was too militaristic and needed to quit throwing its weight
around. I was for a 50% reduction in DOD
expenditures even when the Soviets were a “threat”. (Read Seymour Melman.) Of course, I could see the danger of nuclear
war but the Soviets had a country no one wanted to live in and would do much to
escape if they could. They did not seem
to be much competition for how to organize a grand and glorious State. They seemed in fact pretty shabby. So even in the turbulent late 1970’s, America
was the place to be. Conditions were in flux
and it seemed time to get busy on a future that included all 4 billion people
on the planet.
In my mind America
needed to address the essential contradictions of capitalism, the problem of
“externalities”, the problem of valuing the resources we all are dependent on,
and then of course planning for energy and resource limits. How were we going to include the developing
nations in the project of civilization?
It did not seem right to argue for 3% growth for us and 5-7% for them
which would enable them to “catch” us in 150 years. Actually it did not make sense to “grow”
forever. A little sustainability was in
order. These concerns appeared in books
like Limits to Growth or Small is Beautiful. These issues had been brought to common awareness on the first Earth Day
and now we were working through them politically. The 70’s were turbulent. Capitalism
was consciously selfish. The inattentive
and poor were being victimized. They thought the system cared about justice and
fairness. Yes, it was gloriously
productive BUT it had big failures. The
hippies pointed it out but were unable (and unwilling) to actually follow
through on difficult almost revolutionary change. Young people’s criticism was
unfocused, lazy, and selfish. They wanted a so-called Clinton “third way” that
would not require too much of a sacrifice.
I was in to hope and change before it became
fashionable. Genial Reagan aggravated my
worldview because he was ancient history, unable to understand the present,
much less the future. He was the
pretender of the greatest generation—an actor not a thinker. And he was senile!
He was stuck on the whole American exceptionalism thing and unable to
comprehend that the rest of the world HAD a world view. In short, it was all about US, and our
glorious future was just a riff on our world saving past. It was the feel good politics of the
stupid—we were facing all these modern, critical issues and he was trying to
return to the 50’s. Who would speak for
the necessary organization of the future?
So our country was misdirected in the 80’s from the recognized problems
of the 70’s and forced to try a return to Mayberry while building the biggest f***** army on the
planet. We had neighbors that were reluctant to listen to us
so we took a stick to Grenada, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Panama and let
everyone know the Monroe Doctrine now applied to the whole world once Russia
took a powder. WE were the end of
history. Now that we were the sole
superpower it was time to shuck the Miss Congeniality shtik and get the whole world shaped up to our
satisfaction. As you
may know it was libertarian Karl Hess(speechwriter for Barry Goldwater) who
advanced the pithy idea that liberals think everybody else is stupid and
conservatives think everybody else is lazy.
Ok guilty. It only makes sense to
work hard at something that has a prayer of working. We are deep deep into stupidity at this
point.
So OUR biggest idea for the last 20 years has been “show me
the money”. We learned to just make it
up and then promptly forgot it’s supposed to be a measure of value, not
permission to pillage. Value! What an outmoded concept! It’s OK, we thought, everyone has money now instead of lives of
value. But the rich desired to be Icarus
and fly not only up to the sun but to the other suns called stars and they
needed everybody else’s money to do
that. So they demoted them to Marx’s
Industrial Reserve Army and piled up the money so they could escape Earth’s
gravitational field and enjoy the incredible lightness of being. How are we going to get these yoyo’s back to
planet earth? They have their
international trust funds and multiple international houses with private jets
and are planning on helicoptering from gated community to tiny personal island
and back whenever necessary while the middle class pack mules try and find out
where the feeding stations are when the whole edifice collapses.
COLLAPSE!
Who brought this subject up? Was it Jared Diamond in 2004
with his best selling book after the successful Guns, Germs, and Steel?
Probably. Since then, as in circa September 2007, I have been a
reluctant (because I am earnest optimist) believer that systemic failure was at
least possible. By dint of some ameliorative action we could have
politically addressed some of the consequences of that unhappy fate but to some
degree we have known the future would not be an unalloyed success.
Progress was not going to be for everybody. It was not a completely
zero sum game, events were too complicated for that, but in a real sense, the
overpopulated resource constrained world was starting to play musical chairs
for keeps. We watched the World Trade Center Towers fall and felt it was
possible that the whole modernity project could sputter and fail like a high
performance car that had not been properly maintained. So around 2005 it
seemed the Zeitgeist had found its new metamorphosis and there sprang into the
developing internet blogosphere the peak resource, peak oil, and financial
system destruction acolytes.
They have all been around at least 10 years
maintaining that the collapse of civilization and the world financial system is
happening--soon. Just around the corner. Once you get into this
sub-culture you wonder how prevalent the thinking is. In my everyday life
as a dentist in a southern defense industry town, I note that very few of my
neighbors, friends, extended acquaintances and even my family for that
matter are particularly worried about the collapse of western civilization.
I detect no worry that the Big Short redux could claim their bank account
or that the electricity grid could sputter and just go out. The idea of
no oil in gas stations seems farfetched. They don't worry about nuclear storage
issues at our local TVA reactor. Obviously Rome was a Western
civilization that collapsed some 1800 years ago but the concern that it is our
"turn" to collapse is never mentioned in polite company. It's
true that we Alabamians are a little slow to recognize and adopt the new, new
thing. We have a certain protective religious conservatism that is not in
a hurry to change. We are so-called "late adopters".
In truth I have a pretty big bone to pick with my
fellow southerners as they have been foolish supporters of policies that have
only further emasculated, enslaved, and undermined what they say they hold
dear. They have been big time warmongers, demonstrating their US
patriotism by supporting a plethora of military interventions both unhelpful
and unnecessary. Southerners don't mind fighting and prefer to
demonstrate their patriotism by being willing to support the cause of freedom.
Whether it actually creates any freedom is an uncomfortable question.
I don't really detect any angst or chagrin about the results of our
"good intentions" in Afghanistan or Iraq. Perhaps they thought the
wogs deserved it. Now personally I think they have been played the
fool--sending our young and marginally employed to wars and police actions of
dubious merit but they are proud of this sacrifice and don't want to hear it
impugned. As payback they kind of expect to be left alone to go to church
and watch NASCAR. They don't like being told they have to hire the
transgendered, put illegal Mexican children in their schools, and rehabilitate
criminals.
And my town has benefited mightily from the wars
abroad. My representative thinks it's the greatest thing ever to cut the
rest of the federal budget to give the DOD more money to "keep us
safe". More drones, more helicopters, more missiles--good.
More jobs. I must confess that it has supported my business, teeth
need fixing and having good insurance helps those employed to get treatment.
So if you talk to my mayor he will highlight how we recently have located
a Polaris ATV manufacturing facility and a Remington gun plant here. More
good jobs. Things are coming up roses here. I have even heard that
the Arsenal is planning to bring the FBI training facility here that would
consist of 2,000-4,000 new jobs. War and security are making us rich.
In truth we have other high tech businesses like NASA, Adtran, Intergraph,
and Hudson Alpha genomic research. Where is the collapse in all
this good news?
They say that pride goeth before a fall and I
suppose that we are proud of the concatenation of circumstances that has put us
in the modern catbird seat. Ten years ago my office was downtown
surrounded by Housing Authority low cost apartments but they have all been
razed--new apartments renting for $1200/month are going up downtown with new
restaurants and the like. Young people are moving in. How do they
afford these rents? I have no idea. The restaurants are packed.
Everybody has money it seems. Where does it come from? The
government? Parents? I can't tell you the number of military retirees that
settle here because we have a commissary and a veterans hospital. I
played in a charity golf tourney that raised $25,000 and when I parked I
couldn't believe all the new SUV's with disabled vet plates or stickers on
their windshield detailing their branch of service. What I am suggesting
is that the idea of collapse is just so obviously wrong for those of us
situated in Fortunes good graces.
But I am a collapsnik and as such I look for a
useful role to play. I do not see the prepper, doomer, and
survivalist world view as being anything a society would consciously aim for.
It goes for individualization when what is needed are societal solutions.
Personal planning could obviously be a necessary mitigation strategy but they
are not plans that foster community. The national political catfight
actually confuses the issues that most localities need to be addressing.
How does one both think and act locally while the news is everything that
is happening somewhere else? It is irrelevant and meant to distract.
I like to talk probabilities. I read Ted
Koppel's book Lights Out last year and he pegged the
likelihood of grid failure in the next 10years at 50%. What do you think?
Is it 1%, 10%, 50%, or virtually certain? Grid failure is a
catastrophic civilizational collapse in short order. Without power, modernity
is just not possible. A one week in house camping experience would be a
salutary reminder of how electric dependent we are but a 2 month power outage
is close to inconceivable. And the chances of it are 50%? I can
tell you that my utility company is more than certain that it has emergency
plans in place that would prevent that possibility. I guess, if it
happens, we will get an apology by mail or an announcement on the radio. I am not too worried about terrorists, they are a certainty but quite localized. Nuclear accidents like Chernobyl or Fukashima or even a military mistake are always a concern. We have been lucky. I realize we have enemies but the blowback
from attacking us would be apocalyptic. Another gas crisis is possible. We stood in
line in 1973 but it strikes me that given all our wasteful consumption, we
could easily drop demand by 25% with a painful price increase. People
with gas want to sell it for other things and unless international trade stops,
gas would likely be available at some price.
But it is the financial system that collapsniks are
sure will fail first. Money is currently imaginary and illusory so when
it disappears all of the signs of prosperity will vanish. How likely is
another financial crisis? I have heard the mainstream experts say we have
stabilized the system. In 2007, I thought the chance of system wide
financial failure in 10 years was close to 90%.
I am coming up on being very wrong (or just early). Should I
change my mind? Debts are unpayable, climate is changing, resources are
diminishing, populations are increasing and migrating, pollution is increasing,
growth is slowing to a crawl. Why don't we just call our permanent recession -
sustainability? Is healthcare going to be fixed? Are pensions going
to be payable? Indeed! And No and no. At some point we will all be
left with what we have. So ask yourself, what do you have? If
the bank owns your home and doesn't like your re-payment efforts, the house is
not yours to live in. It might be gifted to you because the banks are
insolvent and can't collect but I do not think I would count on a gift mansion.
I would PAY for one house and finance to the hilt an investment house
that would pay off if debts were forgiven. It should be a
"good" investment, not a hope and a prayer. That would be
called an albatross.
So what happens if you own your house but all your
neighbors have big mortgages and lose their homes in a financial crisis?
You are likely to get new neighbors. Neighborhoods should become
self aware of their financial vulnerability by creating an index of
independence--how close a given set of houses is to being paid for. If
you like and can work with your neighbors, then your group can face crisis a
lot better than you as an individual.
Many people consider suburbs ugly and dysfunctional.
Not so fast! They often have a good population density. A
little land for home economy activities and enough people for protection.
Apartments in a big city strike me as being vulnerable and lonely rural
outposts have weaknesses. You have to go so far to get stuff. If
you don't NEED anything, fine, but I have not met the home repair project that
doesn't require a trip to the hardware store. My house is not really set up to live in without power.
And I am not talking about the TV and internet. Refrigeration and
Heating/AC are a big deal. We have about 4 months of comfortable living
in our climate with no central air but I do not have a solar array that could
run a 4-ton heat pump. I could heat a room or two with a fireplace insert
but if all 1,000 of my neighbors were doing it, our neighborhood would look
like the Sahara desert in 3 years and we would
die of smoke inhalation before then.
Financial crisis is likely sometime but what sorts
of impacts will it have? Will you have a
job? Will there be products in the
store, like food? Can you get money out
of the bank, how much? I prefer to
assume that the impacts will be on our future buying power rather than have
stores without food, gas stations without gas, and banks without cash. A financial crisis will chew up the future
value of money but leave the present limping along in coping mode. Civilization won’t just stop. But I can’t be sure about that so I’ll keep
going to work until something changes….
Thank you for this and the insights you have provided.
ReplyDeleteHope you are enjoying your Presidential run.... We had the libertarian Jo Jorgenson in town yesterday for a rally and it was a pleasure listening to a lucid candidate. Sadly, Alabama will go Trump.
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